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Jamaal Williams Jersey White
The Packers run too often on 2nd- or 3rd-and-long The Green Bay Packers beat the Buffalo Bills badly on Sunday Jimmy Graham Jersey White , but no one was happy with the offense and with good reason. Six of those 22 points came on long field goals, and McCarthy seemed to settle for another long field goal attempt on the first drive, though Jamaal Williams was unable to gain sufficient yardage on a third-down play to try it.McCarthy settles a lot, and that’s becoming big problem because it costs the team possessions. There are two major philosophies about picking up first downs. The first, older philosophy captures the NFL standard for most of the 1980s and 90s, which holds that first and second downs are to be used to make 3rd down easier.A few four-yards runs on the early downs will give the team flexibility to either run or pass on 3rd and short, making for an easy conversion. The new philosophy holds that offenses are now so good (and defenses so restrained) that it’s more efficient to give yourself as many opportunities as possible to gain ten yards on an individual passing play, and that the vast majority of the time, any quarterback will complete a 10-yard pass before they are forced to punt.While you do need to run sometimes, just to prove that you might, the latter philosophy is far closer to optimal. We know that, on first down, a successful play must pick up at least 4 yards, and in reality that number is probably closer to 5. Your subsequent 2nd and 3rd down plays are really only successful if they pick up the first down, which means that if your first down play fails and leaves you with six yards to go or more, running is almost always a bad idea because runs don’t generally pick up big yardage. Smart teams know this.For instance, let’s look at the Rams, who are currently the cream of the crop in terms of football smarts. On 2nd or 3rd down, with 6 yards or more to go, and when the game is within one score, the Rams have passed 87% of the time. They have only run in this situation four times all season. It’s just not something they do. In the aggregate, their plays have been successful 52% of the time, while their passing plays have been successful 60% of the time. The Packers Jamaal Williams Jersey White , on the other hand, still strive for balance in these scenarios. They have passed only 68% of the time and run 32% of the time. Those runs have only succeeded 1/3 of the time, and overall in these situations, the Packers only succeed 38% of the time. We tend to focus on 3rd down efficiency, but the Packers are basically pissing away plays and drives every time they do this. Despite the fact that the Packers have an all-time great quarterback, only seven teams pass less than the Packers in this situation, which is insane. On their first drive against the Bills, the Packers faced 2nd and 10 from the Buffalo 40-yard line. Either McCarthy or Rodgers called a run to Jamaal Williams, the worst Packer runner, that lost a yard. Incredibly, on 3rd and 11, they went back to the same well, and Williams was stoned for no gain. Even if Williams hadn’t been completely stuffed, the best case scenario for those play calls was a slightly shorter but still long field goal attempt, which is hardly an ideal outcome. It is these pointless plays and drives that seems designed specifically to not score, which cause the offense such problems. The Packers then did this again in the 3rd quarter when up 19-0. The team faced 3rd and 10 and called a run to Ty Montgomery, which was stuffed for a loss of one. The Packers were forced to punt from their own 18, and the defense was fortunate to preserve the shutout.The fact of the matter is that smart teams don’t operate this way. They pass more frequently and with more success when a first down is still in doubt. The actual plays that were called against the Bills were not half bad, and the second drive of the game — which resulted in a touchdown — was a thing of beauty. But the problems with the offense are deeper than individual play design. They show a fundamental lack of football understanding. McCarthy’s focus on execution has always been about the trees, but much of the rest of the NFL now runs a hyper-efficient forest, and Mike just doesn’t see it. As the Green Bay Packers look to bolster their outside linebacker unit in the 2019 offseason, most of the attention at present is going to the 2019 NFL Draft class. That’s entirely understandable, as this year’s group of edge rushers is both strong at the top and quite deep Womens Mike Daniels Jersey , with quality players likely available well into day two of the draft. The free agent class will also see some intriguing players coming available, with big names like Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford, and Demarcus Lawrence set to see their contracts expire.However, there is a third group of players who are under contract for 2019, but whose cap numbers may make them available this offseason. These are the cap casualties — players who could end up being released and saving their former teams significant amounts of cap space.It just so happens that there are three big names who are good candidates for that type of a move. All three have posted monster seasons in the past, and all of them will be 30 years old or younger in 2019. Let’s take a look at these players, all of whom could provide the Packers with some intriguing abilities if they indeed are released and would sign for the right price.Justin Houston, ChiefsScheduled cap hit in 2019: $21.1MSavings if released: $14MThinking back to 2011, Justin Houston was a common pick for the Packers at #32 in some mock drafts. The former Georgia edge rusher fell to Kansas City in round three, largely due to failing a drug test for marijuana at that year’s Combine. However, Houston made an immediate impact opposite Tamba Hali, recording 5.5 sacks as a rookie before a truly magnificent three-year stretch that saw him total 43 sacks.Despite some lingering durability questions, Houston is still effective. He’s still averaging 11 sacks per 16 games played over the past four seasons, though he has missed at least one game each year and missed a total of 11 contests in 2016. That stands in contrast to Nick Perry, who has dealt with injury issues of his own but who managed just 1.5 sacks in nine games this year. Houston isn’t worth a $21 million cap hit any more, and so he’s a good bet to be released for cap reasons, but he could be a great pickup for the Packers, who will need veteran help on the edge. Another connection here is that the Packers hired Mike Smith, the Chiefs’ outside linebackers coach in 2018, to the same job for 2019.Robert Quinn, DolphinsScheduled cap hit in 2019: $12.9MSavings if released: $12.9MAnother member of the 2011 draft class, Quinn went 14th overall to the Rams. Like Houston Womens Jake Ryan Jersey , he had a five-sack season as a rookie before an explosive three-year stretch from 2012 to 2014 — he had 40 sacks in those three years, compared to Houston’s 43. Since then, he has dropped off a bit, and thanks to some unconventional accounting, the Rams were able to trade him to Miami before the 2018 season without much of a salary cap penalty. And since the Dolphins traded for him, they can release him without any dead money on their capFor most of his career, Quinn has been a 4-3 defensive end. However, in 2017 he did have 8.5 sacks in 15 games as the Rams moved to more of a 3-4 defense under Wade Phillips. This season in Miami, he had 6.5 sacks in 16 games. Like Houston, Quinn could be a nice second-tier pass-rush option if he ends up on the open market.Vic Beasley, FalconsScheduled cap hit in 2019: $12.81MSavings if released: $12.81MWith the Falcons releasing kicker Matt Bryant today, writers at The Falcoholic were discussing Beasley as a candidate for a restructure or release as a cap casualty. He is currently under contract on his fifth-year option as a first-round draft pick in 2015, which for now is guaranteed for injury only. However, the Falcons could release him prior to the first day of the league year on March 13th and get off scot-free. Beasley’s Combine performance in 2015 was one to behold, as he tested above the 90th percentile of edge rushers in literally every athletic drill. He translated that into a league-leading 15.5 sacks in 2016. However, Beasley has hardly played up to that impressive season over the past two years. I asked The Falcoholic’s Kevin Knight about what happened, and he responded with the following:Yikes. That’s not a good sign, and the stats bear that out: his sack total dropped from 15.5 in 2016 to just five each of the past two years. Still, the Chiefs’ Dee Ford was a speed rush specialist and Mike Smith helped coach him to a career year with 13 sacks in 2018. Maybe he could do something similar with Beasley?