Ngày đăng: 24/07/2019

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Don’t look now folks Kendarius Webster Jersey Boys , but the Patriots offensive line is starting to get some much-deserved respect — particularly on the interior.According to PFF, the Patriots are deploying the NFL’s third and seventh-highest graded guards in Shaq Mason (injury aside) and Joe Thuney, as well as the league’s seventh-highest graded center in David Andrews. And, the numbers are there to back it up. According to Football Outsiders, New England’s offensive line is ranked third in adjusted line yards and second in adjusted sack rate so far this season.As pointed out in last Sunday’s column, much of the Patriots’ success can be attributed to the consistency that their interior trio has achieved over the past three seasons. The team’s week-nine victory over the Packers marked just the third time since the start of the 2016 season that the entire trio was not active for game day, as Shaq Mason missed the contest with a calf injury.The Patriots took the first step towards long-term solidification of the unit with the signing of David Andrews to a three-year, $9 million extension last May — a deal that might be among the best values in football. Then came the news in late August of this year that the organization had struck a deal with Shaq Mason and his management team to keep the talented guard in Foxborough through 2023. The deal — which is worth $45 million (up to $50 million with incentives) and included $23.5 million fully guaranteed at signing — was another home run for the organization, as the $9 million per-year average represented a discount given the recent explosion of the interior offensive line market.Naturally, that brings us to left guard Joe Thuney. A former North Carolina State standout currently in his third season after being selected in the third round (78th overall) of the 2016 NFL Draft, Thuney and his team will be eligible to negotiate a contract after the completion of this season. While it certainly would not be a surprise to see him play out the final season of his rookie contract without an extension, Thuney appears to fit the mold of past and current Patriots players who have signed early with the organization.Signing an extension with a season remaining on a player’s rookie contract has benefits for both sides. The player receives a large amount of cash sooner, his injury risk is nullified, and he is provided with more long-term security in a environment with which he’s become comfortable. The team generally receives a slightly better contract figure than if they were bidding for the player’s services on the open market, and they are afforded more cap flexibility on the back end of the deal because the prorated portions of large bonuses begin on the year the contract is signed. Currently, the Patriots have seven players who signed extensions before the start of the final season of their rookie or undrafted rookie free agent contracts:Tom Brady - Drafted in 2000, signed a four-year extension in August, 2002.Rob Gronkowski - Drafted in 2010, signed a six-year extension signed in June, 2012.Ryan Allen - 2013 UDFA, signed a three-year extension in June, 2015.James White - Drafted in 2014, signed a three-year extension in April, 2017.David Andrews - 2015 UDFA, signed a three-year extension in May, 2017.Joe Cardona - Drafted in 2015, signed a four-year extension in June, 2018.Shaq Mason - Drafted in 2015, signed a five-year extension in August, 2018.Heading into 2019, Thuney will be carrying an estimated cap hit of $2,268,357 after qualifying for the Proven Performance Escalator (PPE) — a provision in the CBA that bumps the fourth year rookie salary of a player drafted after the second round up to the level of that year’s lowest restricted free agency tender. Players can earn the PPE by participating in 35% of offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons, or by participating in 35% of all of those snaps over his first three years. There are numerous factors that go into the valuation of a player’s potential contract extension. The major components are talent, age, health, position, and the current league salary cap in the year that the deal is to be signed. That last one is big. As pointed out this week by BSJ’s Miguel Benzan, if the salary cap rises to $190 million in 2019 — which many anticipate — that would mean a 22% increase over just three seasons. No one is more cognizant of the impact of league salary cap increases than NFL agents.From a talent perspective Infant Chase Winovich Jersey , no one would argue that Thuney’s skill set rivals Shaq Mason’s, but it has been consistently underrated in his time in New England. The Dayton,OH area native — who turns 26 in a couple weeks — is a strong, intelligent player who has improved with each season. But, his most impressive asset is his durability. In fact, not only has Thuney started every game since becoming a Patriot in 2016, but he has missed just nine regular season snaps in his career thus far.When attempting to set a reasonable floor for which to project Thuney’s contract value, a good starting point is the contract that Houston Texans guard Zach Fulton signed this past March. Fulton — who averaged 11.5 starts per season in his four years in Kansas City — secured a four-year, $28 million deal with $13 million fully guaranteed at signing. Thuney is clearly a superior player, so the expectation is he’ll get more than $7 million per year, but things really start getting wild when you venture past Fulton on overthecap.com’s current left guard contracts. Next on the list is Denver’s Ron Leary, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal with $18.65 fully guaranteed at the age of 27 last offseason. From there, Cleveland’s Joel Bitonio checks in at $10 million per year, followed by Tampa’s Ali Marpet at $10.825 million per year. There is simply no way New England is going to pay Thuney more than Mason, so where does that leave us? Well, here’s a possibility:This deal — worth $32,425,000 in new money — would give Thuney a $9 million signing bonus as part of the $17 million in full guarantees, and a first-three-year cash total of $20.5 million. The total value of the contract would be $34.5 million, with an average annual value of $8.445 million over the four new years of the extension. $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses would start in 2020 and run through the remainder of the contract. Essentially this projected deal is the same as the four-year, $29 million contract that Jets guard Brian Winters signed in 2017, but adjusted for an estimated 2019 league salary cap of $190 million. Too hefty? Not rich enough? Perhaps we’ll gain more clarity in March.Follow Brian Phillips on Twitter @BPhillips_SB Most people assume they did, but what do the numbers say?"There are many people in New England, including a few who host a popular 2-6 radio show, that think the Patriots didn’t get nearly enough value in the Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Michael Felger went so far as to say that Patriots fans couldn’t take the loss. But is that really the case? Did Bill Belichick actually leave a ton of value on the table when he moved Jimmy G? Let’s take a closer look at whether or not that’s actually the case.To do this exercise, I’m going to take a closer look at four trades, one of them being the Garoppolo trade. I’m going to be using the Jimmy Johnson draft pick valuation model to determine the value of each pick that is traded (the updated 2019 version I’m using is from drafttek.com). I’m going to start with the trade that most people will probably point to when they make the argument the Patriots should’ve gotten more compensation:Sam Bradford tradeThe Vikings acquired Bradford from the Eagles before the 2016 season in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 fourth-rounder, that could become a better pick if certain conditions were met. The Eagles also paid $11 million of Bradford’s $18 million salary for the 2016 season. The Vikings overpaid significantly to get Bradford, but there was some reasoning behind why they did it. The Vikings had won the NFC North the year before with Teddy Bridgewater throwing only 14 touchdown passes, but he had suffered a gruesome leg injury before the season. The thought process was that they didn’t need a superstar at QB to make a deep run in the playoffs, but someone who could manage the games and not lose them. Their hope for Bradford was to simply not screw things up.He did better than that, completing over 70% of his passing and tossing 20 touchdowns compared to only 5 interceptions. Their faith in Bradford paid off on the stat sheet but not on the field, as the team finished 8-8. The ironic part is that, after Bradford got hurt the following season, Case Keenum would lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game. Was it a good trade by Minnesota? No, they overpaid for Bradford. They thought that if they simply had a QB who was half-decent Chase Winovich Jersey Draft , they could go deep in the playoffs, and they did that the following year, so they weren’t too far off. But trading for Bradford was a complete panic move, and proved to be quite stupid. The real question is: is there a comparison between Garoppolo and Bradford? My answer is, in how it related to the Vikings situation, no. They wanted a little bit of a veteran quarterback who could lead them a bit. Again, it was stupid, but they’re not giving up what they did if Jimmy is on the other side of the trade. Josh Rosen tradeNext, let’s take a look at the Josh Rosen trade that was made this weekend: Miami acquired Rosen from the Cardinals for the #62 overall pick and a 2020 5th rounder. The Cardinals had just selected Kyler Murray #1 overall, and they had the #10 pick from last year’s draft, Josh Rosen, who was going to sit on the bench and watch Murray take his job. They needed to move Rosen, who, as many experts said, would’ve been the top quarterback in the draft if he had been coming out this season.The Dolphins gave up the picks they did because they were able to get a very talented guy who has some really bad NFL tape. However, I’m not sure how anyone can fault Rosen for what happened in Arizona last year. That team was a dumpster fire, and he was simply caught in the middle of it. The Dolphins might have gotten the steal of the draft at #62 without even drafting a player.The parallels to Garoppolo are certainly there: they are both young, and although the Dolphins aren’t throwing tons of money at Rosen, they are obviously hoping he turns out to be the long term solution for them. As far as the trading partner, everyone knew that Arizona had Kyler Murray, so they needed to move Rosen, but the Patriots also had Tom Brady. Of course they were going to deal Garoppolo — they certainly weren’t going to deal the GOAT. So, any value that was lost, was probably lost by both teams. Rob Johnson tradeNow that takes us to the cautionary tale. The quarterback who probably stacks up the best against Garoppolo, who was traded for so much that it’s still considered one of the worst trades in NFL history, Rob Johnson. The Bills acquired Johnson from the Jaguars in exchange for the #9 overall pick and #101, which was in the fourth round at the time. Johnson has started one game in Jacksonville, he looked great. Mark Brunell was hurt and was going to miss some time. Johnson was finally going to get his chance to play, and he got hurt. Sound familiar? Now, Johnson had very limited stats in Buffalo, going 22-28 with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, but he had looked fantastic in preseason games, and really looked like he could be a good player in the league. It’s easy to say that everyone knew he was going to be bad, but that’s just not true. No one knew for sure about him, but he had looked pretty good in limited action. As I said, this is considered one of the worst trades in NFL history, and has served as a cautionary tale for those teams considering trading big assets for unproven players, especially QBs. Now I don’t think that Jimmy G is going to be a bust, and he’s probably already been better than Johnson ever was Chase Winovich NFL Jersey , but this trade might have been in the back of everyone’s head when considering trading for Garoppolo. Jimmy Garoppolo tradeThat brings us to Garoppolo. Now, could the Patriots gave gotten more for him? I think that’s a strong possibility. But it’s also not a guarantee they could have. Could they have received compensation like the Vikings were supposed to give up, just over 750 value points. Or could they have gotten what the Cardinals got, which was just over 300. Well, it turns out what they got was somewhere right in the middle.When the Patriots made the trade, the 49ers were 0-8, any reasonable assumption would put them at a max of 4-4 after the trade, which would have had them finish 4-12, giving them the fifth pick of the second round. The value for that pick is 530, according to Johnson’s chart. As it was, they went on a run at the end of the season, and they finished 6-10, which gave them the eleventh pick in the second round, which is worth 470.Whether the return was 530 or 470, what’s clear is the value they got back was between Bradford’s expected value, which was a clear overpay, and Josh Rosen, who was available way below market value. So what’s my conclusion? While the Patriots may not have “won” the Garoppolo trade, to think that they would’ve been able to get much more would be crazy. If you wanted to match the expected value of the Vikings deal, again, not what they actually gave up, but what they (stupidly) thought they would have to give up, assuming they made a deep playoff run. You’re talking about adding a third round pick.In my opinion, the Vikings overpaid for Bradford, so I would say drop it down to a fourth or fifth round pick. Now the argument is that Patriots fans can’t take the loss because Belichick left a fifth round pick on the table when dealing Garoppolo? Please. What really happened, is that we all overvalued a player on the Patriots’ roster. It’s okay, he was here, and we liked him, that’s not a crime, but he wasn’t worth a top-10 pick, which Cleveland was supposedly going to give up for him. They never were, by the way. That story has turned into the Tomase-walkthrough-story, it was said once, so it must be true, even when there’s no evidence it ever happened. If you don’t think the Patriots won the Garoppolo deal, you’re probably right, neither do I, but they also didn’t lose it either.Pat is a host of The Patriot Nation PodcastInteract with him on Twitter @plane_pats